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Over $600 billion! TSMC to rise, domestic chip manufacturers ushered in an outbreak? Mobile phone chips will rise?
TSMC foundry collective price increase
According to Caiyun news, TSMC plans to start raising prices in the near future. Specifically: 3nm agent price increase or more than 5%, and advanced packaging next year offer also about 10%-20% increase. Unexpectedly, so TSMC will actively respond to Huang Renxun's call for "price increases", however, this can also be understood, after all, according to China's Taiwan media news, TSMC 3nm advanced process technology has been Apple, NVIDIA and other round; At the same time, according to the latest news, Intel has also outsourced the 3nm process to TSMC, so that TSMC's production capacity has indeed been overloaded. At the same time, due to the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, the demand for HBM is rapidly amplified, and Sk Hynix, Micron, etc., are looking for TSMC for foundry; This has also caused TSMC's advanced packaging capacity to be further strained, especially the 2.5D CoWoS is repeatedly expanded, but still can not meet the demand.
Domestic wafer foundry rised in price.
Global wafer foundry, in addition to TSMC advanced process is extremely popular, mature process is also expected to rise, ushering in a wave of price increases. According to China Fund News, due to the significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic wafer foundries, many manufacturers have reached full production, or even overloaded operation, and the capacity utilization rate exceeds 100%.
In this case, the industry expects domestic wafer foundries will also usher in price increases in the near future. For example, according to Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) recently reported that the current capacity utilization rate of Huahong semiconductor fab has exceeded 100%, and it is expected that the price may be raised by 10% in the second half of this year. Since March 2024, the production capacity of Jinghe has been at full capacity, and the load of the production line in June was about 110%, and the order exceeded the existing capacity. In order to meet the increasing market demand, Jinghecheng plans to expand its total production by 30,000-50,000 pieces per month in 2024. At the same time, according to authoritative data, since the beginning of this year, domestic power semiconductor manufacturers collective price increases, including Sanlian Sheng full range of products increased by 10% to 20%, blue color electronics full range of products increased by 10% to 18%, Gaoge Core micro products increased by 10% to 20%, Jetjet micro electric Trench MOS increased by 5% to 10%.
In other words, the strong downstream demand has pulled application manufacturers to speed up the pace of stocking, and it is also increasing the number of inventories, which further promotes the demand for foundry wafers. As SMIC previously mentioned, its capacity utilization rate in the first quarter was 80.8%, an increase of 4% quarter-on-quarter, and customers' readiness to stock increased, with a total of 1.79 million 8-inch equivalent wafers shipped, an increase of 7% quarter-on-quarter.
One advantage of price increases by foundries is that they indirectly boost global semiconductor sales; But for the global downstream manufacturers, especially domestic smartphone manufacturers will face a new round of price crisis.
Global semiconductor sales will exceed $600 billion
According to the latest data from the US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the global semiconductor industry sales reached 46.4 billion US dollars in April 2024, an increase of 15.8% year on year and an increase of 1.1% month on month. Moreover, this is the global semiconductor industry has achieved double-digit sales growth every month since 2024, and April is the first time this year to achieve positive month-on-month growth. This means that the global semiconductor upward cycle is officially confirmed.
Moreover, according to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS), the global semiconductor industry sales growth rate will reach 16.0% in 2024, and sales will reach $611.2 billion; In 2025, the growth rate will reach 12.5%, and sales will rise further to reach $687.4 billion; This means that the global semiconductor industry will usher in a rapid growth cycle in the next three years.
Therefore, in the case of the recovery of the consumer electronics market and the continuous outbreak of artificial intelligence; Whether it is the advanced process represented by TSMC, or the domestic mature process OEM will usher in a wave of rising trend. For the global semiconductor industry, this is a real sign that it has entered the upward cycle; It is expected that the next 3-5 years of global semiconductor will usher in a period of rapid growth.
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